- US Inflation Data Release On Wednesday, the US will release its April inflation data. With recent inflation readings showing stubbornly high price pressures, Wall Street broadly expects the number to come in around 3.6%. If it’s higher than 3.6%, it will put very negative pressure on markets as it reduces hopes of the Fed cutting rates this year. But if it’s below 3.6%, it could reignite expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2023. So this print is hugely important for rate expectations.
- US Retail Sales Data Also on Wednesday, major US retail chains like Walmart will report their sales figures. This data will give insights into the health of the American consumer and gauge the momentum in the overall economy, which is still primarily driven by consumption.
- UK Employment Reports The UK will release two key employment reports on Tuesday. In addition to job growth numbers, wage inflation data will be closely watched. If UK incomes are rising more slowly, it could prompt the Bank of England to cut rates in June according to some analysts. A UK rate cut cycle would have major implications for global currency markets.
- Oil Prices in Focus After holding steady last week, oil traders will be watching a few key factors that could move prices in the coming days:
a) OPEC is again pushing for production cuts to boost sagging prices.
b) China’s trade data for April showed a rebound, which could signal higher oil demand.
c) However, high US interest rates and a strong dollar could limit oil’s upside potential.
The push-and-pull from these forces makes oil prices one of the top issues to monitor over the next several sessions.