As we kick off a new week, let’s take a look at five major economic events that markets will be closely watching:
- US Consumer Confidence Index
This Friday, the United States will release the consumer confidence index. This is a crucial indicator for gauging US inflation and economic trajectory, so it’s worth paying attention to. - Speeches by Influential Fed Officials
Several high-ranking Federal Reserve officials will deliver public speeches next week, including John C. Williams of the New York Fed, Thomas Barkin of the Richmond Fed, and Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed. These individuals carry significant influence within the Fed and are generally seen as credible voices in the markets, not due to power or status, but because their macroeconomic understanding has often been on the right side. Their speeches warrant close attention. - US Stock Market Performance
Last Friday’s April non-farm payrolls report from the US Labor Department was described by Wall Street as “just right,” easing inflation concerns. This data will likely continue impacting markets this week after April proved to be a dreadful month for US stocks. The question is whether the “just right” jobs report can change the downward momentum. - Bank of England Rate Decision
On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold a rate policy meeting. Markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged, but Wall Street is keenly interested in any forward guidance or hints about future rate cuts. Recent UK macroeconomic data shows inflation picking up, similar to the US, leading markets to push back expectations of a rate cut from June to September. Investors will be scrutinizing the meeting for any clues on whether the BoE leans toward June or September for a potential rate reduction. - Chinese Economic Data Releases
Next week, China will release two major macroeconomic data points. On May 9th, China will report April trade data. After a decent performance in Q1, markets will watch if April can sustain the positive momentum. Economists broadly expect Chinese exports to rebound to 10% growth and imports to rise 2.5% year-over-year. Such data would support the view of an improving Chinese economy. Additionally, on May 11th, China’s National Bureau of Statistics will release April inflation (CPI) figures. Expectations are for a slight CPI uptick to 0.2% and a narrowing PPI decline to 2.3% year-over-year. This data would signal China remains in or near deflationary territory.